Circana and Ampere: How GTA 6 Will Reshape the Games Market

6 September 2026 · 5 min read

GameMapa editorial · how we check facts
Checked: Claude (AI) — факт-звірка з uk-оригіналом; носій мови НЕ перевіряв

Research firms Circana and Ampere Analysis both point to GTA 6 in their 2026 reports as the main driver of growth for the entire US video game market, and a separate Ampere study is already tracking rivals losing players to GTA Online ahead of the sixth game’s release.

The two reports were published independently, but they describe essentially the same process from two different angles. Circana sizes up the whole market and one game’s role in the macro numbers. Ampere Analysis looks narrower — at concrete player behavior inside the already-existing GTA V/Online — and shows the mechanism behind that impact in practice.

Who are Circana and Ampere Analysis

Circana is a major research firm that tracks US retail video game sales; publishers, retailers, and industry journalists regularly cite its annual reports. Ampere Analysis is a British analytics firm that specializes in studying game and streaming audiences and player behavior. Both are independent market researchers, not the developer or publisher of GTA 6.

Circana’s record forecast: $62.8 billion

Circana forecasts that US video game spending will grow 3 percent to reach $62.8 billion in 2026. If the forecast holds, it would be a new all-time high for the industry — the previous record of $61.7 billion was set back in 2021.

We covered a separate, narrower estimate of the game’s impact in our piece on GTA 6’s economic impact on the US; Circana’s forecast instead covers the entire software-and-hardware market at once.

GTA VI holds the highest purchase-intent score on record

The real reason Circana is talking about a record at all isn’t some abstract industry growth — it’s one specific game. The firm directly names GTA VI as the main driver of the expected software sales surge in 2026: according to Circana, the game holds the highest purchase-intent score in the history of the firm’s tracking. Analysts add that this could also boost demand for console hardware, accessories, and subscriptions, not just the game itself.

The catch: the forecast rests on the game alone

Circana’s video game industry lead, Mat Piscatella, told GamesBeat an important detail in an interview: the entire annual growth forecast essentially rests on a single assumption — that GTA VI lives up to the extraordinarily high expectations of being the “biggest launch ever.” In other words, the optimistic $62.8 billion figure isn’t a guarantee, but a scenario that plays out only if the game’s launch goes exactly as the industry expects.

That lines up with how Wall Street financial analysts have been reacting to GTA 6 more broadly — covered in more detail in our piece on analysts’ reaction to GTA 6’s Netflix showcase.

Ampere Analysis: rivals are already losing players

If Circana’s report is a forecast for the future, Ampere Analysis’s study captures a process it says is already underway. Analysts examined the console GTA V/Online audience and found it grew by roughly 3.7 million players, or 29 percent, thanks to the Safehouse in the Hills update and the Festive Surprise holiday promotion.

The most telling detail isn’t the growth itself, but where the new players came from. Of the 4.7 million new GTA V/Online players in December, Ampere’s figures show 15.5 percent came from Battlefield 6 and another 12.3 percent came from Fortnite, effectively abandoning those games for GTA. That is exactly the kind of player drain Ampere believes could hit rivals even harder once the sixth game actually launches.

Who stands to lose the most

Ampere Analysis forecasts that spending on console games, in-game monetization, and add-on content will grow by almost 10 percent in 2026, with PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series hardware sales getting an extra push specifically because of GTA VI’s release.

At the same time, analysts believe shooters, sandbox games, and sports titles will be hit hardest — those are the genres closest, based on current GTA V audience behavior, to what players expect from GTA 6. Interestingly, the GTA audience itself is fragmenting in the process: Ampere suggests this could make it easier for other studios to compete for live-service attention while part of the audience is focused on GTA VI.

What this means for the industry

Both reports add up to one picture: GTA 6 isn’t just another big game release — it’s being treated as an event capable of redistributing spending and audiences across the entire industry, from how much money gets spent on software and hardware in the US to which games players walk away from. For how Take-Two’s own investors are reacting to these same expectations, see our piece on how Piper Sandler and Wells Fargo raised Take-Two’s stock price targets, and the broader 2026 games market outlook is covered in more detail in our piece on Newzoo’s global games market forecast.

Both reports openly acknowledge that all of this optimism is conditional. It hinges on whether GTA 6 truly becomes the “biggest launch ever” it has already been billed as. If the November 19, 2026 release goes exactly that way, the industry gets a record year. If it doesn’t, Circana’s and Ampere’s forecasts stay a scenario rather than a result.

The bottom line

Circana forecasts a record $62.8 billion in US game spending for 2026 and directly ties that number to GTA VI, which holds the highest purchase-intent score in the history of the firm’s tracking. But Circana’s own video game industry lead admits the forecast only works if the release lives up to “biggest launch ever” expectations. At the same time, Ampere Analysis finds that rivals like Battlefield 6 and Fortnite are already losing players to GTA Online — meaning GTA 6’s impact on the market, according to analysts, started before the game even launched.